Recency Bias

A man called me and said that he was going to have an operation. He said that it was preventative; the doctors told him that he was ok for now, but that at any moment, he could be on the floor in an emergency and then it might be too late to do anything. I understood what he was saying. The operation was a big deal, and he would have a lot of pain and need a long time to recover fully.

He was having a very human moment of doubt. Something in his mind was saying, “But I’m ok now. Maybe the worst will never happen. Maybe I don’t really need to do this.” Th real reason he was calling me is because he knew what I would say. “Please,” I said, “Please do this. I’ve known people who did not do this and they went through horrible crises. You have good doctors, and they are telling you what you need to do. And when you have these moments of doubt, just picture yourself on the floor, looking up at a paramedic.”
He had the operation, he is recovering, and he is going to be able to live now without the fear that push is going to come to shove. He is pushing and shoving back against the worst.

I tell you this story because it exemplifies for me how we must think. We can’t prepare for everything, but we can prepare for the things we know about. This is easier said than done. There is something called “recency bias”; I’ve been feeling good so I will be good going forward. But this is an unrealistic prejudice. The past is not necessarily prelude.

If we are a country surrounded by enemies, we must prepare for the worst and always be vigilant. If we are an area that has certain kinds of natural disaster, we must prepare as if that disaster is going to hit tomorrow.

The man in my story was brave. But soon he will be able to go on with his life with the knowledge that he has done everything he can to protect himself. We must all do this.